The good news keeps rolling in for Asia Pacific’s tourism recovery,
but big challenges remain for an industry still grappling with the
lingering impact of the Covid pandemic.
PATA,
the Pacific Asia Travel Association, is predicting “robust annual
growth” for international tourism continuing to the end of 2025, with a
report sponsored by Visa, with insights from Euromonitor International,
outlining three possible scenarios.
At the same time, the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA)
says continuing recovery in international passenger demand reflects “the
unabated appetite for travel in the region”.
Under three scenarios flagged by the Visa report, international
arrival numbers in 2023 range from 705 million under the mild scenario
to 516 million under the medium scenario, and almost 390 million under
the severe scenario.
This would equate to visitor numbers in 2023 that exceed that of
pre-pandemic 2019 by 3.3% under the mild scenario, but still nearly 25%
short of it under the medium scenario, and some 43% behind it under the
severe scenario.
Concerns remain. Despite very strong annual increases in arrivals
from mainland China to Asia Pacific destinations, under the severe
scenario that number is still expected to lag the 2019 peak by around
six percent by the end of 2025.
PATA chair Peter Semone noted, “While these forecasts are extremely
encouraging, hurdles still remain, and the travel and tourism sector
will require ongoing vigilance and operational flexibility as these
issues present themselves over the coming years.”
Traffic figures released by AAPA show collectively Asia Pacific
airlines recorded a 249.8% year-on-year increase in the number of
international passengers carried to a total of 20.3 million in April,
with demand averaging 63.3% of the corresponding month in 2019.
Capacity has been slower to return, helping the average international
passenger load factor to lift by 13.0 percentage points to 80.0% for
the month.